These trade recommendations are brought to you by CPM Group. Due to market conditions, the views and positions of trade recommendations can quickly change. We strongly advise you to monitor our published trade recommendations on an ongoing basis.
Gold prices fell sharply last week, giving up around $100 / £2.31. Rising 10-year U.S. Treasury interest rates were behind this move, as evidenced by broad moves in a wide range of currencies, equities, debt securities, and commodities. This was not a function of events isolated in the gold or precious metals markets.
The reason for the bond interest rate increases is critical to forming an opinion of future trends in interest rates, gold, and broad markets. The Treasury and Fed, as the supply side of the market, wants to and has repeatedly said it will work to keep rates low. Honestly, even after the increases in the past two weeks U.S. Treasury rates are at historically low levels, and remain negative when adjusted for inflation.
Thus, the upward pressure in rates appears to be coming from the buy side of the market: Investors, banks, and others are demanding higher returns in the face of the pending $1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package, plans to announce a $2 trillion infrastructure financing program possibly this week, and other indications of massive fiscal stimuli.
If it were just the deficits, however, then bond yields should be rising while the dollar might be expected to be weak. Since the dollar has been showing strength as well, it suggests that the interest rate market has been reflecting what CPM has written about repeatedly: Investors have been showing too much optimism about controlling the pandemic, economic recovery in the United States, and a reduction in international political tensions.
If it is over optimism behind the interest rate and dollar rise, and gold price decline, one would expect gold prices to rise as such optimism dissipates in the face of economic and political realities.
Thus, CPM expects gold prices to consolidate between $1,720/oz (£39.76/g) and maybe $1,780/oz (£41.14/g) in the near term. Gold may move sideways to higher this week. Any recovery in gold prices may be limited to $1,760/oz (£40.68/g) or $1,770/oz (£40.91/g).
Note: Discretion should be allowed at +/- 0.20% of the price at the time each TR is issued from the target. Recommendations are valid until the target date or a new Trade Recommendation or message is issued by CPM.
US$/GBP exchange rate used: 0.72